It will be strange to see the French Open 2023 without Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer, but their absence opens the door for a new group of skilled players on the clay court.
It was a recurring French Open 2023 comedic act that had become an annual tradition
Begin your Roland Garros experience with a leisurely walk around the grounds, and stop by the statue of Rafael Nadal. Many consider this person one of the best tennis players ever. Head towards the main stadium and find Nadal in the anteroom before he steps onto Court Philippe-Chatrier, his favorite stage for almost two decades. You’ll recognize him by the bandana tied securely around his head. As he prepares for his match, Nadal follows his usual routine of rolling his shoulders and doing a series of spring-loaded kangaroo hops and stretches, being mindful not to hit his head on the ceiling.
While Nadal performs his backstage routine, the tournament stadium announcer Marc Maury introduces him in French and English. He then lists the years Nadal won the tournament championship: “2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012…” The crowd starts to laugh by the time Maury reaches the 14th year.
It’s only natural to react strongly to Nadal’s record at Roland Garros.
As a teenager in 2005, Nadal won his first French Open in Paris and has since dominated this major on the tennis calendar. He exhibits tremendous force and accuracy in guiding the fluffy balls, much like how yellow dominates their color scheme. Nadal boasts an impressive record of 112-3 in 115 matches at the venue.
Rather than spending most of this essay attempting to convey the extent of Nadal’s success on clay courts, we will provide you with one illustrative example. Two decades ago, the renowned tennis player Pete Sampras retired with a remarkable 14 career Grand Slam titles, more than the combined total of John McEnroe and Boris Becker. This achievement was compared to Cal Ripken Jr.’s Ironman streak at that time, as it was perceived as a sports milestone that would never be surpassed.
Let’s move on from that topic. Nadal has now won 22 major championships, which equals Novak Djokovic’s record for most all-time wins. If we only consider Nadal’s victories at the French Open, he would tie with Sampras. Roger Federer, who has won 20 career majors and is Nadal’s longtime rival, describes Nadal’s success at the French Open as “scary but also funny.”
Unfortunately, the red light is on, and Paris won’t have any more fun this year. Last year, Nadal made it to the finals for the 14th time and won the trophy for the 14th time. He played a great game with both offensive and defensive moves, power, and accuracy. However, he has been performing at a different level since then.
Throughout his career, injuries have been a common occurrence for him, almost like a cost for all his effort. Despite this, he has become very familiar with the inner workings of his body, studying it in detail like the pages of a medical textbook.
Despite his usual high standards, the athlete has spent the last year mainly on the sidelines and has only played a few matches since Roland Garros 2022. When he did play, it was evident that he was not at his best. During the Australian Open in January, he was the defending champion but was defeated early due to an upper hip injury called psoas. Since then, he has not played any matches.
On May 18, he confirmed rumors and stated that he would skip Paris in the springtime for the first time since 2005. He expressed that he did not feel prepared to compete at the required level for playing in the Roland Garros tournament. This news left the prospect of the French Open 2023 without him. It was like a Prince performance without the color purple or a Matrix movie without Keanu Reeves.
Although Nadal is not seeded, he has left his mark. Interestingly, the player to watch out for in his absence is another powerful and tireless Spaniard with a combination of aggression and grace on the court. Despite being 17 years younger, he shares the same tennis DNA as Nadal, with old threads woven into new fabric. Introducing Carlos Al-can-raz from Spain, as Maury would say.
Alcaraz, who recently turned 20, is currently dominating men’s tennis and is considered the sport’s future. He holds the No. 1 ranking and is the top seed at the current event. Many see him as the next big thing in tennis, following in the footsteps of legends like Nadal, Djokovic, and Federer. With Federer retired and the Big Three struggling, Alcaraz has won four titles and has a season record of 30-3. Mats Wilander, a former champion, believes that Alcaraz’s hype is entirely justified and compares him to Nadal regarding talent and potential.
The similarities and symmetries between Alcaraz and Nadal aren’t perfect. Nadal is a lefty, and Alcaraz is a righty. Alcaraz hits flatter shots drizzled with less spin and bite. He is more inclined to use a drop shot and venture to the net to volley. He might be a smidge more naturally athletic than Nadal. Alcaraz possesses fewer tics and has a more conventional approach to his equipment. (Quick digression: Nadal’s kid-sized 4⅛ inch grip never got its due; it is the equivalent of Aaron Judge walking to home plate gripping a Little League bat.)
Nadal began his career coached by his uncle, who studied the sport but has yet to play it at a high level. Alcaraz is coached by Juan Carlos Ferrero, a Spaniard who won the title in Paris 20 years ago en route to reaching No. 1 in the world. Alcaraz and Nadal profess they are flattered to be likened to the other but quietly chafe at all the comparisons. Nevertheless, as Ferrero says, “How can Rafa not be an inspirational [figure]?”
Like Nadal, Alcaraz won his first major at 19, the 2022 U.S. Open, ascending to No. 1 in the rankings in the process. And this spring has done a convincing Nadal impersonation on clay, taking the titles in Barcelona and Madrid. Last week in Rome, he suffered a shock loss against Fábián Marozsán, a little-known player from Hungary ranked outside the top 100. But Ferrero (granted, hardly an objective source) makes a fair point that, unlike losing to a rival and firing them with confidence, Alcaraz can attribute last week’s loss to a simple aberration.
At least with the oddsmakers, Alcaraz has leapfrogged Djokovic, a two-time French Open 2023 champ (2016 and ’21), and, perhaps, the best clay-court player in men’s history not named Rafael Nadal. Yet, since concluding his annual romp to the title in Australia, Djokovic has been a work in regress. Because of his anti-vaccination stance, he could not play the big-ticket events at Indian Wells and Miami. His ranking and rhythm have been negatively affected by this. Over the past four months, he entered five events and won none. Djokovic just turned 36 on May 22, once considered retirement time in tennis years.
As for other contenders, whatever the Russian word is for “sandbag,” it applies to Daniil Medvedev. If the job of the charismatic Russian is to blast tennis balls with his awkward-but-effective strokes, he has made a hobby out of denigrating his chances on clay—it is a “broken surface” and is “so terrible” with dirt underfoot. Except his results tell another story. He took the title last week in Rome, beating a murderers’ row of accomplished clay courters (including 2021 Roland Garros finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semis). His protestations to the contrary, Medvedev is a contender in Paris, surface be damned.
Same for the feisty Holger Rune, born only a few days before Alcaraz. Rune is one of those athletes (bless him, every sport needs a few of them) who plays to win, not to make friends or become a fan favorite. He may beef with his colleagues and get booed before taking the court, but if it impacts his tennis, it’s for the better.
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After out-Djokovicing Djokovic in Rome—beating the favorite with pinpoint strokes, ripping backhands, and precision when it mattered most—, Rune is up to No. 6 in the rankings. And if/when the fickle French fans turn on him in these next few weeks, so much the better. For all the players who, in the spirit of Nadal, minimize expectation at every turn, Rune openly (and rightly) articulate the “big opportunity” Paris presents. Almost two decades have passed since the Big Three parted ways, and it’s clear that this has opened up new opportunities in the market.
And since no sport does irony quite like tennis, the reverse trend is afoot in the women’s game. For so long, the women’s draw were blank slates of possibilities with dozens of contenders. But this year, you might say a trio—a Big Three—has come to the fore.
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Iga Świątek, the current top-ranked player in the world from Poland, holds the title of defending champion and is recognized as one of the most versatile performers in the sport’s history. Despite her impressive achievements, her dominance this year has been compromised. In Australia, Elena Rybakina of Kazakhstan lost to Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus in the final. But Rybakina exacted revenge, beating Sabalenka to win Indian Wells. And Świątek beat Sabalenka to win Stuttgart. But Sabalenka beat Swiątek to win Madrid. And Rybakina beat Swiątek en route to winning Rome.
Have they got that? Bottom line: They are players, each in their mid-20s, who have created separation from the rest of the field. They are, far and away, the three best bets on the women’s side to win the French Open 2023. In the end, we suspect it will be Świątek who will raise the trophy. She possesses more gears and an excellent battery of options than her opponents, which is always a secret tennis superpower, especially on clay.
On the men’s side, we’ll take the top seed there, too. Alcaraz possesses that ultimate virtue of confidence. Then he marries it with bottomless talent. He can blast winners but also can construct points. He can play offense but also defense. And at 20, his legs and live arm are an entire decade younger than many of his likely opponents.
Whoever takes the men’s title is a lucky man. Nadal is known as the King of Clay, but he is also Cerberus, a sort of gatekeeping monster who prevents others from entering the kingdom. He has vowed to “probably” return in 2024 for one coda season, one last power drive, and a final play for a 15th title in Paris. But he left his post in ’23. And in his absence, there is a power vacuum. Get in while you can, gentlemen.